2018 has proven rather uneventful for the Australian Reserve Bank. With the average Australian the most indebted they have ever been (at circa 190% of disposable income to debt) it has been welcome to most to see cash rates remain at their historic 1.5% low.
The RBA continues to remain upbeat with expectations of economic growth at around 3.5% over this year and next. The RBA is cautious with regard to trade disputes, high household debt, and anaemic income growth. They seem less concerned however about the falls in housing prices saying that they “have continued to ease”.
With all that said, the markets have priced 47% chance of a rate rise by the end of 2019, with the consensus of economists looking for the first move up in Q1 2020.