Proving it is just a matter of confidence the RBA has been hell bent on getting Australia to full employment.

However the recent round of cuts has seen language change from a full employment target to now 'reduced' unemployment. The change in laguage now suggests they are unlikely to cut rates in November or December, which now means February is the next opportunity. Markets are currently pricing in 50% chance of this.

Interestingly, consumer confidence actually fell after the June/July rate cuts – indicating the consumer is spooked, and this theory was reconfirmed by another poor data point after the October cut.

Unemployment is now 5.2%, inflation 1.6% and the RBA retains a strong easing bias. The RBA GDP estimate is currently 2.8% and likely to be lowered to 2.4%.